Model Selection Guideline

DO understand the importance of decision being evaluated in model selection


Before diving into the details of model selection, it is important to know the decision the climate change study is aiming to inform. This will help determine the level of detail that fits one’s needs and resources and define evaluation criteria beforehand. Then model selection can proceed by identifying models at each link in the modeling chain (along with resolution and number of realizations) appropriate to capture the climate change response of the variables needed to inform the decision. Some model experiments are appropriate and reliable for asking certain questions but not others. Knowing this ahead of time can save time and agony.

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